How CS2 trade-up contracts work
A trade-up contract takes ten skins of the same rarity tier and returns one skin from the next rarity tier. The input rarities, from lowest to highest, are Consumer, Industrial, Mil-Spec, Restricted and Classified. Covert skins cannot trade up (the next tier is the rare special knife and glove pool, which Valve excludes from the contract).
The output collection is decided by the input mix. In a single-collection trade-up — the case modelled here — all ten inputs share one collection, so the output is uniformly chosen from that collection's next-tier skins. Each output has probability 1 / N where N is the count of next-tier skins in the collection.
How the output float is calculated
The output float is avg_input_float × (out.max − out.min) + out.min. Every skin has its own float range, so the same average input float can land different output skins in different wear buckets. This calculator assumes every input sits at the midpoint of the wear bucket you select, then derives the output wear (Factory New, Minimal Wear, Field-Tested, Well-Worn, Battle-Scarred) and looks up the live Steam Market price for that wear.
FAQ
Is the CS2 trade-up profitable?
On most collections — no. The expected value of the output rarely covers the cost of buying ten inputs. A small number of legacy collections (Bravo, Phoenix, Huntsman, etc.) and some recent cases sit at slight positive EV during specific market windows. The calculator surfaces the live numbers per collection so you can decide.
What is the StatTrak™ trade-up rule?
StatTrak™ contracts must use ten StatTrak™ inputs and produce a StatTrak™ output of the same collection. The probability and float math are identical; only the prices differ. This calculator currently uses vanilla prices; treat StatTrak™ as an upper-bound input cost.
Can I trade up to a knife or glove?
No. Knives and gloves sit in the Rare Special tier and are not valid trade-up outputs. They only come from case openings.
Cheaper way to get the skin I want?
Enter SlothiW's free CS2 giveaways or grab a code from a vetted partner site and skip the contract entirely.